# ToxicR: Continuous Analysis

## Basics of Toxic R Continuous run.

This file shows ToxicR for dichotomous benchmark dose analyses using both single model and multiple model fits. The first thing we need to do is load the data. From an excel file this can be done using the following R commands:

cont_data           <- matrix(0,nrow=5,ncol=4)
colnames(cont_data) <- c("Dose","Mean","N","SD")
cont_data[,1] <- c(0,50,100,200,400)
cont_data[,2] <- c(5.26,5.76,6.13,8.24,9.23)
cont_data[,3] <- c(20,20,20,20,20)
cont_data[,4]<-  c(2.23,1.47,2.47,2.24,1.56)
Y <- cont_data[,2:4]

### Hill fit

In what follows, I describe fitting the models using summary statistics. One can also fit these models using the original data with no change to the function call except the Y is a $$n\times 1$$ now one column vector, and the dose vector is also $$n\times 1$$ and corresponds to each entry in the data vector.

When summary data are used, ToxicR expects $$Y$$ to be a $$n\times 3$$ matrix. The first column of $$Y$$ is the the mean, the second colunn is the number of units on test, and the third column is the observed standard deviation. In what follows, lets look at the Hill model fit, where the Hill model is \begin{align} f(dose) &= a + \frac{b\times dose}{c^d + [dose]^d} \end{align}

library(ToxicR)
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library(ggplot2)
hill_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],Y,
model_type="hill")

### Object Extraction

The last line fits the Hill Bayesian Laplace model and puts all of the information one needs in the hill_fit’ object variable. This variable has the same structure as its dichotomous counterpart. By default the procedure assumes normal variance proportional to the mean. To see what model you fit, simply type the following line:

hill_fit$full_model #>  "Model: Hill Distribution: Normal-NCV" hill_fit$prior
#> $priors #> [,1] [,2] [,3] [,4] [,5] #> [1,] 1 1.0000000 1.0000000 -100 100 #> [2,] 1 0.0000000 1.0000000 -100 100 #> [3,] 2 0.0000000 2.0000000 0 100 #> [4,] 2 0.4700036 0.4214036 0 18 #> [5,] 2 0.0000000 1.0000000 0 100 #> [6,] 1 0.8349247 1.0000000 -18 18 #> #>$model
#>  "Hill Model [normal-ncv]"
#>
#> $parameters #>  "a" "b" "c" "d" "rho" #>  "log(sigma^2)" #> #>$mean
#>  "hill"
#>
#> attr(,"class")
#>  "BMD_Bayes_continuous_model"

Here, we see the Hill model is fit using the Normal-NCV, or normal variance proportional to the mean. For the Hill model, you can also use ‘normal’ as a distribution option.

hill_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],
cbind(cont_data[,"Mean"],cont_data[,"N"],cont_data[,"SD"]),
model_type="hill",distribution = "normal",
fit_type = "mcmc")
hill_fit$full_model #>  "Model: Hill Distribution: Normal" plot(hill_fit) Notice how the distribution’ option controls the distribution. For the “hill”, “power”, and “polynomial” DR models you can choose either “normal” or “normal-ncv.” or the “exp-3” and “exp-5” models you can also choose “lognormal.” exp5_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],Y, model_type="exp-5",distribution = "lognormal",fit_type="laplace") exp5_fit$full_model
#>  "Model: Exponential-5 Distribution: Log-Normal"
plot(exp5_fit) ## Benchmark Dose Types

### Absolute Deviation

There are also other types of BMDs you can choose. Here one can specify absolute deviation as ‘abs,’ which solves \begin{align} \mid f(\mbox{BMD}) - f(0) \mid = \mbox{BMR}, \end{align} where $$BMR$$ is a specific cutoff value. In the example below, the abosolute difference of $$\mbox{BMR} = 2.$$

hill_sd_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],Y,
model_type="hill",distribution = "normal-ncv", fit_type="mcmc",
BMD_TYPE="abs",BMR = 2)
hill_sd_fitfull_model #>  "Model: Hill Distribution: Normal-NCV" plot(hill_sd_fit) ### Standard Deviation The standard deviation approach is the default approach, and this is the value that solves \begin{align} \mid f(\mbox{BMD}) - f(0) \mid = \mbox{BMR} \sigma_0, \end{align} and in this definition the $$BMR \geq 0$$ is the number of standard deviations the mean changes from no-exposure. In the example below, the $$\mbox{BMR} = 1.5.$$ hill_sd_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"], cbind(cont_data[,"Mean"],cont_data[,"N"],cont_data[,"SD"]), model_type="hill",distribution = "normal-ncv",fit_type="laplace", BMD_TYPE="sd",BMR = 1.5) hill_sd_fitfull_model
#>  "Model: Hill Distribution: Normal-NCV"
plot(hill_sd_fit) ### Hybrid Deviation

The hybrid approach is a probabilistic approach that mimics risk for dichotomous data. Here, the BMD is the value that solves \begin{align} \frac{ Pr[y < Y_0 \mid \mbox{BMD}] - Pr[y > Y_0 \mid 0]}{1-Pr[y > Y_0 \mid 0]} = \mbox{BMR} . \end{align} Here, $$Pr[y > Y_0 \mid 0]$$ is the probability that an ‘adverse’ response is observed at background dose, and $$0 < \mbox{BMR} < 1$$ is the increase in probability of seeing an adverse response at dose $$\mbox{BMD}$$. For this approach $$Pr[y < Y_0 \mid 0]$$ must be specified using the “point_p” option. This option is only used when “hybrid” is specified. The following shows a Hill fit, where the BMD with only a $$2.5\%$$ chance of being observed at no dose, but has a $$12.25\%$$ probability of being observed at dose $$\mbox{BMD}.$$ Note: $$\frac{0.1225 - 0.025}{0.975} = 0.1.$$ For more information on this approach see Crump [@crump1995calculation].

hill_hybrid_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],
cbind(cont_data[,"Mean"],cont_data[,"N"],cont_data[,"SD"]),
model_type="hill",distribution = "normal-ncv",fit_type="mcmc",
BMD_TYPE="hybrid",point_p = 0.025,BMR = 0.1)
hill_hybrid_fitfull_model #>  "Model: Hill Distribution: Normal-NCV" plot(hill_hybrid_fit) ### Relative Deviation The relatived deviation approach [@slob2002dose] is the value that solves \begin{align} \mid f(\mbox{BMD}) - f(0) \mid = [1 + \mbox{BMR}] \times f(0), \end{align} where $$\mbox{BMR} > 0$$ is the value of increase/decrease from the background. hill_rd_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"], cbind(cont_data[,"Mean"],cont_data[,"N"],cont_data[,"SD"]), model_type="hill",distribution = "normal-ncv", fit_type="mcmc", BMD_TYPE="rel",BMR = 0.1,samples = 50000) hill_rd_fitfull_model
#>  "Model: Hill Distribution: Normal-NCV"
plot(hill_rd_fit) Note: The above definitions are for for increasing data, ToxicR’ will determine the direction of adversity and adjust computations accordingly.

## Prior Specification

Like the dichotomous case you can modify the priors, to see what prior you want to modify Again, this is easy we can type the following code to see what our current prior is:

hill_sd_fit$prior #>$priors
#>      [,1]      [,2]      [,3] [,4] [,5]
#> [1,]    1 1.0000000 1.0000000 -100  100
#> [2,]    1 0.0000000 1.0000000 -100  100
#> [3,]    2 0.0000000 2.0000000    0  100
#> [4,]    2 0.4700036 0.4214036    0   18
#> [5,]    2 0.0000000 1.0000000    0  100
#> [6,]    1 0.8349247 1.0000000  -18   18
#>
#> $model #>  "Hill Model [normal-ncv]" #> #>$parameters
#>  "a"            "b"            "c"            "d"            "rho"
#>  "log(sigma^2)"
#>
#> \$mean
#>  "hill"
#>
#> attr(,"class")
#>  "BMD_Bayes_continuous_model"

prior <- create_prior_list(normprior(0,1,-100,100),
normprior(0,1,-1e4,1e4),
lnormprior(0,1, 0, 100),
lnormprior(log(1),0.4215,0,18),
lnormprior(0,1,0,100),
normprior(0, 10,-100,100));

p_hill_ncv = create_continuous_prior(prior,"hill","normal-ncv")

prior <- create_prior_list(normprior(0,1,-100,100),
normprior(0,1,-1e4,1e4),
lnormprior(0,1, 0, 100),
lnormprior(log(1),0.4215,0,18),
normprior(0, 10,-100,100));

p_hill_norm = create_continuous_prior(prior,"hill","normal")

When specifying a prior, it is slightly different than the dichotomous case. Here, we need to specify what distribution we are using too. This adds one or two parameters depending on the parameters. All models have a parameter called $$\log(\sigma^2),$$ which is the variance term, and it is ALWAYS the last parameter in the model, and the
prior is placed over the log of this value. For the ‘normal-NCV’ option, the variance is $$\sigma^2 f(dose)^\rho,$$ i.e., it has an additional parameter $$\rho.$$ The parameter $$\rho$$ must have a prior, which is $$\mbox{log-Normal}(0,1)$$ in the above code.


hill_sd_a_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],
cbind(cont_data[,"Mean"],cont_data[,"N"],cont_data[,"SD"]),
prior=p_hill_ncv,
fit_type="laplace",
BMD_TYPE="sd",BMR = 1.5)

hill_sd_b_fit <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],
cbind(cont_data[,"Mean"],cont_data[,"N"],cont_data[,"SD"]),
prior=p_hill_norm,
fit_type="laplace",
BMD_TYPE="sd",BMR = 1.5)

library(ggpubr)
figure <- ggarrange(plot(hill_sd_a_fit)+ggtitle(""),
plot(hill_sd_b_fit)+ggtitle(""),
labels = c("Prior NCV", "Prior Normal"),
ncol = 1, nrow = 2)

figure In the above code, we didn’t need to specify the ‘model_type’ or ‘distribution’ because this is done implicitly when you specify the prior. The above code works for the hill model, lets try it for a polynomial model.



poly_sd <- single_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],Y,
distribution="normal",model_type="polynomial",
degree = 4,
fit_type="laplace",
BMD_TYPE="sd",BMR = 0.5)
#> WARNING: Polynomial models may provide unstable estimates because of possible non-monotone behavior.

plot(poly_sd) ## Model Averaging

Beyond single model fits, one can also use model averging for continuous models. As a default 10 models are fit. Here, the ‘hill’ and ‘power’ options are fit under the ‘normal’ and ‘normal-ncv’ distribution assumptions. Additionally to the ‘normal’ and ‘normal-ncv’ distributions the ‘exp-3’ and ‘exp-5’ also use the ‘lognormal’ distribution. Note that the polynomial model is not used because of constraint issues.

ma_sd_mcmc <- ma_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],Y, fit_type="mcmc",
BMD_TYPE="sd",BMR = 0.5,samples = 50000)
#> NOTE: Parameter 'c' added to prior list. It is not used in the analysis.
#> NOTE: Parameter 'c' added to prior list. It is not used in the analysis.
#> NOTE: Parameter 'c' added to prior list. It is not used in the analysis.

ma_sd_laplace <- ma_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],Y, fit_type="laplace",
BMD_TYPE="sd",BMR = 0.5)
#> NOTE: Parameter 'c' added to prior list. It is not used in the analysis.
#> NOTE: Parameter 'c' added to prior list. It is not used in the analysis.
#> NOTE: Parameter 'c' added to prior list. It is not used in the analysis.

plot(ma_sd_mcmc)
#> Scale for 'x' is already present. Adding another scale for 'x', which will
#> replace the existing scale. cleveland_plot(ma_sd_laplace)
#> Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_vline). MAdensity_plot(ma_sd_mcmc)
#> Picking joint bandwidth of 3.29 Here, ‘cleveland_plot’ and ‘MAdensity_plot’ can be used in the same way as in dichotomous plot. Like the dichotomous case, we can create a prior list for our model average.

prior <- create_prior_list(normprior(0,1,-100,100),
normprior(0,1,-1e4,1e4),
lnormprior(0,1, 0, 100),
lnormprior(log(1),0.4215,0,18),
lnormprior(0,1,0,100),
normprior(0, 10,-100,100));

p_hill_ncv = create_continuous_prior(prior,"hill","normal-ncv")

prior <- create_prior_list(normprior(0,1,-100,100),
normprior(0,1,-1e4,1e4),
lnormprior(0,1, 0, 100),
lnormprior(log(1),0.4215,0,18),
normprior(0, 10,-100,100));

p_hill_norm = create_continuous_prior(prior,"hill","normal")

prior <- create_prior_list(normprior(0,1,-100,100),
normprior(0,1,-1e4,1e4),
lnormprior(0,1, 0, 100),
lnormprior(log(1),0.4215,0,18),
normprior(0, 10,-100,100));

p_exp5_norm = create_continuous_prior(prior,"exp-5","normal")

prior <- create_prior_list(normprior(0,1,-100,100),
normprior(0,1,-1e4,1e4),
lnormprior(log(1),0.4215,0,18),
normprior(0, 10,-100,100));
p_power_norm = create_continuous_prior(prior,"power","normal")

prior <- create_prior_list(normprior(0,1,-100,100),
normprior(0,1,-1e4,1e4),
lnormprior(log(1),0.4215,0,18),
normprior(0, 10,-100,100));
p_exp3_norm = create_continuous_prior(prior,"exp-3","normal")
#> NOTE: Parameter 'c' added to prior list. It is not used in the analysis.
prior_list = list(p_exp3_norm,p_hill_norm,p_exp5_norm,p_power_norm)

With a list of priors one can then run a model average based upon a user specified model space. Here, all of the same benchmark dose options of ‘single_continuous_fit’ apply.

ma_sd_mcmc_2 <- ma_continuous_fit(cont_data[,"Dose"],Y, fit_type= "laplace",
BMD_TYPE="sd",BMR = 0.5,samples = 50000,model_list=prior_list)
plot(ma_sd_mcmc_2)
#> Scale for 'x' is already present. Adding another scale for 'x', which will
#> replace the existing scale. 