`## Loading required package: idem`

`## Loading required package: Rcpp`

In randomized studies involving severely ill patients, functional outcomes are often unobserved due to missed clinic visits, premature withdrawal or death. It is well known that if these unobserved functional outcomes are not handled properly, biased treatment comparisons can be produced.

*R* package **idem** implement a procedure for comparing treatments that is based on the composite endpoint of both the functional outcome and survival. The procedure considers missing data imputation with a sensitivity analysis strategy to handle the unobserved functional outcomes not due to death.

In dataset accepted by **idem**, each row should represent a subject with treatment assignment, baseline coveraites, baseline outcome, post-randomization outcomes and survival time.

The **idem** package provides dataset *abc* from *ABC* trial as an example data set.

`head(abc);`

```
## AGE TRT SURV Y1 Y2
## 1 59.63 1 999 NA NA
## 2 66.89 0 999 49 52
## 3 59.70 1 1 NA NA
## 4 81.41 0 72 NA NA
## 5 66.52 1 999 51 45
## 6 40.27 0 65 NA NA
```

There are four major steps in conducting imputation and inference using **idem**. First, a class *IDEMDATA* object should be generated by the function *imData*. Second, the imputation models will be fit to the data observed from the completers by the function *imFitModel*. Third, imputation can be conducted by the function *imImpAll*. Lastly, treatment effect estimation and hypothesis testing can be performed by function *imInfer*.

In this step, the original dataset with specification parameters will be combined and checked. These parameters include variable names in the dataset, endpoint specification, duration of the study, etc.. If there is mis-specification, error messages will be generated. Otherwise, a class *IDEMDATA* object will be generated with certain data visulation functions implemented as its S3 methods.

```
<- imData(abc, trt="TRT", outcome=c("Y1","Y2"), y0=NULL,
rst.data endfml="Y3", bounds=c(10,20), duration=365,
err.terminate = FALSE);
print(rst.data);
```

```
## Model specification is invalid. Please check the following:
## No survival time specified
## Endpoint formula error: Error in eval(substitute(expr), data, enclos = parent.frame()) : object 'Y3' not found
## Upper bound is smaller than some observed outcomes
```

```
<- imData(abc, trt="TRT", surv="SURV", outcome=c("Y1","Y2"),
rst.data y0=NULL, endfml="Y2",
trt.label = c("UC+SBT", "SAT+SBT"),
cov=c("AGE"), duration=365, bounds=c(0,100));
```

The class *IDEMDATA* provides S3 plot and summary methods with multiple options for the visualization of the data.

`plot(rst.data, opt = "survivor");`

`summary(rst.data, opt = "misstable");`

```
## Y1 Y2 UC.SBT SAT.SBT
## Deaths on study 58 (62%) 38 (41%)
## S=1 Observed Observed 18 (19%) 32 (34%)
## S=2 Observed Missing 8 (9%) 8 (9%)
## S=3 Missing Observed 1 (1%) 0 (0%)
## S=4 Missing Missing 9 (10%) 15 (16%)
## Total 94 93
```

`plot(rst.data, opt = "missing", cols = c("blue", "gray"));`

`plot(rst.data, opt = "KM");`

To fit the imputation model to data observed from the completers, i.e.Â the subjects who were alive at the end of the study without missing data, the class *IDEMDATA* object needs to be passed to the function *imFitModel* as parameters. The result has class name **IDEMFIT**, which will be passed to imputation functions.

`<- imFitModel(rst.data); rst.fit `

The goodness of fit diagnostics plots can be generated by the S3 plot method implemented for class *IDEMFIT*:

`plot(rst.fit, mfrow=c(2,4));`

The MCMC sampling is primarily done by **rstan**. It is suggested that the convergence of the MCMC chains should be checked. This can be done by the **imImpSingle** function which imputes missing data for an individual subject under the benchmark assumption.

`<- imImpSingle(abc[1,], rst.fit, chains = 4, iter = 2000, warmup = 1000); rst.mixing `

```
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
```

`plot(rst.mixing);`

The following code shows how to use **imImpAll** to get the imputed complete datasets under benchmark assmption **delta=0** and for sensitivity analysis. We use **300** iterations to reduce the computation time.

```
<- imImpAll(rst.fit, deltas=c(-0.25,0,0.25),
rst.imp normal=TRUE, chains = 4, iter = 300, warmup = 100);
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: The largest R-hat is 1.06, indicating chains have not mixed.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#r-hat
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

` rst.imp`

The result from *imIMPALL* is class *IDEMFIT*. Density plots the imputed outcomes and the imputed functional endpoint can be generated by the S3 plot method associated with class *IDEMFIT*.

`plot(rst.imp, opt = "imputed", deltas = c(-0.25,0,0.25), xlim=c(0,100), endp=FALSE);`

`plot(rst.imp, opt = "imputed", deltas = c(-0.25,0,0.25), xlim=c(0,100), endp=TRUE);`

Treatment-specific cumulative distribution functions of the composite endpoint, where the values of the composite endpoint are labeled according to the survival time and functional endpoint among survivors, can be plotted by the S3 plot method of class *IDEMFIT*.

`plot(rst.imp, delta=0);`

The function *imInfer* implements bootstrap analysis for hypothesis testing, point estimation and confidence intervals of the treatment effects.

For illustration, we run **2** bootstrap samples by the following code:

`<- imInfer(rst.imp, n.boot = 2); rst.test `

```
## ---- Bootstrap 1
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
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## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.005666 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
```

```
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 8 : 1 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2:
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: 0.003471 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004886 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 280 / 300 [ 93%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001793 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00356 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005353 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 9 : 2 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.1e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.11 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001582 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00311 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.004692 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 3e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.03 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.002887 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.004828 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: 0.003224 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004701 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001608 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.002898 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.004506 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 12 : 3 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003439 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005605 seconds (Sampling)
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## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: 0.008732 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003853 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007031 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010884 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 15 : 4 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.002731 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.004175 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.004301 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.003333 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004736 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00158 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003195 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.004775 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 22 : 5 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.002881 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.004417 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.004624 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.002824 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004467 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001634 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003325 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.004959 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 33 : 6 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.7e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.17 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003075 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007002 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.010077 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003679 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007314 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010993 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.007417 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010826 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003876 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006886 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010762 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 40 : 7 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002059 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.002928 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.004987 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001411 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00328 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.004691 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001434 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003819 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005253 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001417 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.002963 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.00438 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 42 : 8 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003778 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007788 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.011566 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003637 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006042 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009679 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 1.4e-05 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.14 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003459 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006794 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010253 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004013 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006197 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.01021 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 43 : 9 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004858 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.008594 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.013452 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.009136 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.014726 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003024 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006949 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009973 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004466 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007486 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011952 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 47 : 10 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004222 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.007108 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.01133 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003307 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.007704 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011011 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002718 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006864 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009582 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003298 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007808 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011106 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 49 : 11 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.009414 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.010076 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.010342 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.006128 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009705 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 54 : 12 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.00557 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.005872 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002372 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003426 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005798 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.004216 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005864 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 60 : 13 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.010905 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.007011 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.010663 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003521 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.007955 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.011476 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.007011 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 75 : 14 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002018 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00339 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005408 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002026 seconds (Warm-up)
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## Chain 2: 0.005634 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 3: 0.008296 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.004678 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.006915 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 76 : 15 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.1 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.01451 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.015142 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.00691 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.010373 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 81 : 16 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.005821 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009714 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.009584 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.006267 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009835 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003014 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006467 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009481 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 83 : 17 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 1.5e-05 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.15 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.0108 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.011088 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: 0.00626 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010287 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.010765 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 86 : 18 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.011536 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 2: 0.011539 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.004107 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.007222 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.011329 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 90 : 19 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.008679 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.012879 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.008014 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011885 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003041 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006312 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009353 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003062 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006598 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.00966 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 92 : 20 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001553 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003076 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.004629 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001576 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.002966 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.004542 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001597 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003106 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004703 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Iteration: 1 / 300 [ 0%] (Warmup)
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001575 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003135 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.00471 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 103 : 21 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002092 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003011 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005103 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001636 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.003116 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.004752 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001585 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.002988 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004573 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.00146 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003157 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.004617 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 105 : 22 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002769 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005663 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008432 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00261 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.011456 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.014066 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002588 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004703 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007291 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002706 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005105 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007811 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 111 : 23 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002783 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004909 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007692 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002488 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004631 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007119 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002924 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004708 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007632 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002834 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004986 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.00782 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 120 : 24 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.003284 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006335 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009619 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003332 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005014 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008346 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003008 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006549 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009557 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003367 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.006389 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009756 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 123 : 25 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002975 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006096 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009071 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002676 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005299 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007975 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.003673 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.006182 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009855 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002455 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004829 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007284 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 124 : 26 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 9e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.09 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.004143 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005134 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009277 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.007228 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.011173 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.005419 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007972 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003278 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005269 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008547 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 128 : 27 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002106 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003479 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005585 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00209 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.003549 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.005639 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002527 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004457 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.006984 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002036 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003102 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005138 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 134 : 28 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002115 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003688 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005803 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.003155 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.005195 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001566 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.002931 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004497 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001541 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003086 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.004627 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 142 : 29 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001664 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003401 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005065 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001534 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.003267 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.004801 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001557 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.002987 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004544 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001485 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003297 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.004782 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 149 : 30 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002703 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005443 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008146 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.003263 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005318 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008581 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.005334 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.008159 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003518 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005466 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008984 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 151 : 31 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002827 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005607 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008434 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: 0.007865 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002495 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005572 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.008067 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002842 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004821 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007663 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 171 : 32 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001788 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003325 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005113 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001627 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.003323 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.00495 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.00173 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003308 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005038 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001941 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003199 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.00514 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 172 : 33 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002755 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.006494 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009249 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.004078 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005503 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009581 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.005752 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.009184 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 176 : 34 out of 35
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
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## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
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## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 187 : 35 out of 35
## ---- Bootstrap 2
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 17 : 1 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
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## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
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## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
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## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 22 : 2 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.003446 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005042 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001782 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003455 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005237 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 23 : 3 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.004375 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.006677 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.007335 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002415 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004701 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007116 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002348 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004868 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007216 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 24 : 4 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001635 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003207 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.004842 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.003661 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.005333 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001654 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003276 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.00493 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001479 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003235 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.004714 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 27 : 5 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002698 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.004998 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007696 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002502 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.006839 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.009341 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.007252 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.010608 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.00515 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007683 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 31 : 6 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.003331 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005025 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001779 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004028 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.005807 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001701 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003554 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005255 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001892 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003285 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005177 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 33 : 7 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00255 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00429 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.00684 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002632 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004618 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.00725 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002624 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004575 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007199 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002591 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00472 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007311 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 38 : 8 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001755 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003374 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005129 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001669 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.003536 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.005205 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002309 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004877 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007186 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: Iteration: 300 / 300 [100%] (Sampling)
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002741 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005683 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008424 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 49 : 9 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002419 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00469 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007109 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00248 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004592 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007072 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002551 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005021 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007572 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002396 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004751 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007147 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 52 : 10 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
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## Chain 1: 0.004846 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007171 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.007268 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.007331 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003297 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.004256 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.007553 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 56 : 11 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.004824 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.007213 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002551 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.004514 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.007065 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002499 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.004776 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007275 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.003724 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005163 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008887 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 58 : 12 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 8e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.08 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00173 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003411 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005141 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.003533 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.005312 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001855 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003404 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005259 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001789 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003559 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005348 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 64 : 13 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001678 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003356 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005034 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001718 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.003629 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.005347 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001658 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003671 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005329 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001897 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003441 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005338 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 76 : 14 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001666 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.003391 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005057 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.00173 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.011739 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.013469 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.003116 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.004792 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001645 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.00343 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005075 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 93 : 15 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.001957 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00328 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005237 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 2:
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.001746 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.003478 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.005224 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001727 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003538 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005265 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002002 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003316 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005318 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 99 : 16 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.00357 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.00519 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.00876 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002747 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.00565 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008397 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.002787 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.005221 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.008008 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.002613 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.005706 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008319 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 103 : 17 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Elapsed Time: 0.002633 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 1: 0.005466 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.008099 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Elapsed Time: 0.002741 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 2: 0.005354 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 2: 0.008095 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3:
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## Chain 3: 0.005034 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.007605 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4: 0.005485 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.008333 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 105 : 18 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.005349 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 3: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.005347 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.00346 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005437 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 115 : 19 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.003392 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005266 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 2: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.005145 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 3: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 3: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 3: 0.003375 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005297 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 4e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.04 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.003184 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.004912 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 119 : 20 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.006464 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.009383 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 2: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 2: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 2: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 2: 0.008657 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 3: the given number of warmup iterations:
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## Chain 3: 0.00539 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.008115 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
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## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 4: 0.005702 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.009592 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 120 : 21 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1: 0.00388 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 1: 0.005608 seconds (Total)
## Chain 1:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 2).
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 2: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 2: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2:
## Chain 2: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 2: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 2: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 2: 0.005856 seconds (Total)
## Chain 2:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 3).
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Gradient evaluation took 5e-06 seconds
## Chain 3: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.05 seconds.
## Chain 3: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 3: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 3: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
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## Chain 3:
## Chain 3: Elapsed Time: 0.001747 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 3: 0.003535 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 3: 0.005282 seconds (Total)
## Chain 3:
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 4).
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Gradient evaluation took 6e-06 seconds
## Chain 4: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.06 seconds.
## Chain 4: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 4: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 4: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 4: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 4: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 4: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 4: term_buffer = 10
## Chain 4:
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## Chain 4:
## Chain 4: Elapsed Time: 0.001934 seconds (Warm-up)
## Chain 4: 0.003432 seconds (Sampling)
## Chain 4: 0.005366 seconds (Total)
## Chain 4:
```

```
## Warning: Bulk Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior means and medians may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#bulk-ess
## Warning: Tail Effective Samples Size (ESS) is too low, indicating posterior variances and tail quantiles may be unreliable.
## Running the chains for more iterations may help. See
## https://mc-stan.org/misc/warnings.html#tail-ess
```

```
## 121 : 22 out of 38
##
## SAMPLING FOR MODEL 'idem' NOW (CHAIN 1).
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: Gradient evaluation took 7e-06 seconds
## Chain 1: 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 0.07 seconds.
## Chain 1: Adjust your expectations accordingly!
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
## Chain 1: WARNING: There aren't enough warmup iterations to fit the
## Chain 1: three stages of adaptation as currently configured.
## Chain 1: Reducing each adaptation stage to 15%/75%/10% of
## Chain 1: the given number of warmup iterations:
## Chain 1: init_buffer = 15
## Chain 1: adapt_window = 75
## Chain 1: term_buffer = 10
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## Chain 1:
## Chain 1:
```